“The Monkey Cage” blog, November 2011.Įxcerpt: “he economy is bound up with campaigns and elections in may complex ways. “Underemphasized Points about the Economy and Elections” What does this suggest about President Obama’s electoral fate?” In 2012, the pattern is flipped, as income growth is at a historical low and business conditions and leading economic indicators are middling. In 2008, the first two variables neared historical lows while income growth was middling. There is less agreement, however, on what specific indicators matter to voters… n 2012, we see substantial divergence between perceived business conditions and leading economic indicators, on the one hand, and income growth, on the other.

On these points there is a good amount of scholarly agreement…. The electorate focuses particularly on economic change, not the level of the economy per se, and pays more attention to late-arriving change more than earlier change. Voters reward or punish incumbent party candidates based on the state of the economy. presidential elections is well established. American Political Science Association, 2012.Įxcerpt: “The importance of the economy in U.S. “The Objective and Subjective Economy and the Presidential Vote”Įrikson, Robert S Wlezien, Christopher. WILL 2012 DEFY THE USUAL PATTERNS OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN A WEAK ECONOMY? What sort of media 'metanarratives' about the candidates - overarching personal narratives relating to character, personality, appeal - have been established? How flawed are these?Ĭan the candidate at the top of the ticket help candidates for lower office - producing a 'coattails' effect?

How will voter outreach efforts affect the election, and how do the campaigns' 'ground games' look relative to previous efforts? What role has advertising played in the race? How much difference will the campaign fundraising battle - the 'money race' - make? How will new finance dynamics impact the public interest? Will 2012 defy the usual patterns of presidential elections in a weak economy? The following are seven outstanding questions, each accompanied by a reading list of research-oriented articles or resources that can help inform coverage (click on the questions below to navigate to the relevant section): These areas include: the state of the economy and its effects on electoral outcomes the role of money and the power of ads the impact of the candidate debates the effectiveness of the campaigns' 'ground games' and the potential for 'coattail' effects down the ballot. With the final stretch of the 2012 presidential election now here, some central research-oriented questions that are traditionally asked about campaigns are coming to the fore. SeptemSeven big questions about the 2012 presidential election: Research roundupīy John Wihbey, The Journalist's Resource September 27, 2012 Seven big questions about the 2012 presidential election: Research roundupīy John Wihbey, The Journalist's Resource

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